Introduction
As the 2025 monsoon season intensifies, millions across South Asia are bracing for possible floods, landslides, and waterborne diseases. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), and Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) have all issued high-alert warnings for several regions due to above-normal rainfall projections. This year’s El Niño–La Niña transition has added further unpredictability to the already volatile weather system, prompting governments and relief agencies to step up preparation efforts.
In this comprehensive update, we assess flood risks, regional rainfall forecasts, vulnerable areas, and the early warning actions being taken across India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
🌦️ Regional Forecast Overview: What the Meteorologists Say
India
According to the India Meteorological Department, most of the country is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, especially in the northeastern, eastern, and central zones. The states of Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, and Odisha are particularly vulnerable to seasonal flooding.
- Assam and Bihar: Already waterlogged by pre-monsoon showers, these states could see river overflows by late June.
- Kerala and Maharashtra: Western Ghats face both flood and landslide threats due to saturated soil conditions.
📰 Source: IMD Long Range Forecast, June 2025 Bulletin
Bangladesh
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department forecasts that the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river basin may experience higher-than-usual inflow, raising the risk of flash floods and riverbank erosion.
- Sylhet Division: Likely to face repeated flooding due to upstream water from India.
- Dhaka and low-lying urban areas: Expected to face urban drainage crises if rainfall continues above average.
📰 Source: BMD Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre (FFWC), June 2025
Nepal
Nepal’s rugged terrain makes it particularly prone to deadly landslides and flash floods during the monsoon. The DHM has warned of extreme precipitation in Karnali and Gandaki provinces.
- Mid-hill districts such as Sindhupalchowk and Gorkha are on red alert.
- Major rivers like the Koshi and Gandaki may cross danger levels by early July.
📰 Source: Department of Hydrology and Meteorology Nepal, June 2025 Bulletin
Pakistan
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) expects above-normal rainfall in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, raising concerns for flooding along the Indus River system.
- Karachi, facing aging infrastructure, may experience urban flooding episodes.
- The Gilgit-Baltistan region also faces glacier-lake outburst flood (GLOF) risks due to sudden downpours.
📰 Source: PMD Seasonal Monsoon Outlook, 2025
Sri Lanka
Although already experiencing pre-monsoon showers, Sri Lanka’s southwest coast is forecast to receive excessive rainfall, especially around Colombo, Galle, and Ratnapura.
- Landslide warnings are active in Nuwara Eliya and Kandy districts.
- Flood-prone rivers like Kelani and Gin Ganga are being closely monitored.
📰 Source: Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka, Early Warning Centre
🚨 High-Risk Flood Zones to Watch (June–August 2025)
| Country | High-Risk Areas | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| India | Assam, Bihar, Odisha, Uttarakhand | Extreme |
| Bangladesh | Sylhet, Sunamganj, Dhaka | Severe |
| Nepal | Karnali, Gandaki, Sindhupalchowk | Very High |
| Pakistan | Punjab, Karachi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | High |
| Sri Lanka | Colombo, Ratnapura, Kandy | Moderate |
💧 Rivers and Reservoirs Near Danger Levels
Several major rivers across South Asia are being closely tracked due to the risk of breaching embankments or causing flash floods:
- Brahmaputra and Ganges: Already flowing close to warning levels in Assam and Bangladesh.
- Koshi and Karnali: Risk of landslide-induced damming in Nepal.
- Indus and Ravi: Rising water levels reported in Pakistan.
- Mahaweli Ganga (Sri Lanka): Flash flood alerts in the central highlands.
Water management authorities in all five countries are releasing water from full reservoirs to maintain safe levels, but this may cause downstream flooding, especially in vulnerable villages and farming areas.
🌐 Early Warning & Disaster Preparedness Efforts
Governments and disaster management authorities are deploying emergency plans, including:
- Evacuation drills in Assam, Sylhet, and Kathmandu Valley.
- SMS-based flood alerts via telecom providers in Bangladesh and India.
- Pre-positioning of food and medical supplies in low-lying districts.
- Drones and satellite imagery being used to monitor river swelling and breaches.
📰 Source: UNDRR South Asia Report on Monsoon Preparedness 2025
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is also coordinating regional disaster response mechanisms to assist smaller countries with fewer resources.
🧭 Climate Change Link: Are Monsoons Becoming More Violent?
Experts warn that climate change is intensifying monsoon variability, making rainfall more erratic and concentrated. This year’s rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña has added further unpredictability.
- Shorter but heavier rainfall episodes are leading to flash floods.
- Warming Himalayan glaciers are triggering glacial lake bursts in Nepal and Pakistan.
- Urban areas like Dhaka and Mumbai face increasing infrastructure pressure from short-duration deluges.
📰 Source: IPCC South Asia Climate Risk Profile, 2024
🧑🤝🧑 How Communities Are Coping
Across South Asia, local resilience is key to surviving seasonal extremes:
- Farmers in Bangladesh’s chars (river islands) are building floating farms.
- Indian states like Odisha are utilizing cyclone shelters as flood relief centers.
- Nepalese hill communities are reinforcing homes with bamboo structures.
- NGOs in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are training locals in flood safety protocols.
📰 Source: Oxfam Asia Disaster Report 2025
✅ Safety Tips for Residents in Flood-Prone Areas
If you live in a region at risk, here’s how to stay safe:
- Sign up for local weather alerts and check updates regularly.
- Keep a disaster go-bag with essentials: flashlight, food, water, documents.
- Avoid walking or driving through floodwaters.
- If authorities advise evacuation, follow orders promptly.
- Sanitize water before use during floods to prevent diseases.
Conclusion
The Monsoon 2025 season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent years, with serious flood risks looming over millions in India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. With coordinated efforts from governments, meteorological departments, and community organizations, early warnings and preparedness can help reduce damage and save lives.
As rainfall increases over the coming weeks, staying informed and prepared is crucial for every household in vulnerable regions. Bookmark your local weather authority’s website and monitor updates daily.
